EDMONTON, Alberta — A year later with new rosters, it can be difficult to draw on past playoff matchups, even in a rematch series.
But Sunday afternoon at Rogers Place, it appeared Oilers goalie Stuart Skinner did.
One year ago, when the Stars and Oilers met in the 2024 Western Conference finals, Skinner was seen as Edmonton’s weakness, but he almost single-handedly sent the Oilers to the Stanley Cup Final in a 33-save performance in Game 6.
In Dallas’ first playoff game at Rogers Place since, Skinner replicated that effort, making another 33 saves, including 21 in the second period en route to a 6-1 victory in Game 3. His performance, paired with two-goal games by Connor McDavid and Zach Hyman, and another dormant night from Dallas’ offense, gave Edmonton a 2-1 lead in the series.
It marked the first time the Stars dropped back-to-back playoff games since this matchup against Edmonton last year. And now three games into the rematch series, this year’s meeting has some concerning similarities for Dallas.
“We had that structure,” Stars forward Jason Robertson said. “But one slip up, a couple of slip ups, and they’re a very dangerous team, and they can score goals.”
Despite holding a 2-1 lead in last year’s matchup, the series took a turn for Dallas. The Stars lost three straight to the Oilers to end their season on June 2, scoring just four goals in those games.
After Dallas took a 1-0 lead, this series feels like it may be shifting even earlier.
The Stars won Game 1, but only after a heroic comeback in the third period. They were blanked in Game 2 and lost by an even greater margin in Game 3. Outside of their five-goal third period in Game 1, they’ve scored just two goals in the other eight periods of this series.
The Oilers had no trouble putting the series away with three straight wins last year. They strung together four in a row this year to overcome a 2-0 deficit in the first round against Los Angeles. If the Stars can’t make some drastic changes in Game 4, they may be approaching a similar fate.
The Oilers’ blueprint from last year has worked in other areas. Skinner, who was again underestimated entering the series after an inconsistent start to the playoffs, has simply been better than Jake Oettinger.
The Stars had the goaltending advantage both years on paper, but Skinner exceeded expectations, and Oettinger looked shaky when going head-to-head with elite players like McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. He allowed some uncharacteristic goals Sunday, giving up six goals on 24 shots, the most he’s allowed in a postseason game this run.
“We wouldn’t be sitting here in the conference finals without Jake Oettinger and how he’s played,” Stars coach Pete DeBoer said. “Tonight was one of those games where they were opportunistic, and then once they got the lead, we‘re pushing to get back in and then there’s Grade-A’s the other way.”
While special teams haven’t dictated the series in the same way they did last year, they also haven’t helped the Stars outside of Game 1. Dallas went 0-for-14 on the power play against the Oilers last year and seemed to overcome that storyline by scoring three power-play goals in Game 1. Dallas had the best special teams in the playoffs ahead of the series, but has had only four power-play opportunities in the last two games and has gone 0-for. The Oilers have won the special teams battle in the last two games and have scored on the power play in every game this series.
Even more concerning is the Oilers righting their one wrong from last year’s series. Dallas actually won the 5-on-5 battle last year, but the Stars have been outscored by five this series in 5-on-5 and by eight in the playoffs.
DeBoer said before Sunday’s game he was sick of answering questions about 5-on-5 and felt his team had played fine in that area.
Despite being outscored 9-1 in their last two games and 14-1 in their last three road games, the Stars are still comfortable in their position this series.
DeBoer was pleased with his team’s game Sunday until McDavid scored a goal with 18.8 seconds left in the second period to give the Oilers a 3-1 lead. He’s also confident in his team’s ability to respond after blowout losses, as it has done four other times this postseason.
“We don’t have to win three games in this building,” DeBoer said. “We‘ve got to win one.”
But they certainly need to win the next one. It’s the difference between this series looking like it’s heading for seven games, or the Stars looking poised for an even earlier exit than their Game 6 demise the last two years.
“You can’t do anything about it tomorrow,” Stars defenseman Lian Bichsel said. “We‘re gonna look at it and what we can do better, but then, it’s all about the next game. We have to win one game here on the road. That’s our goal.”
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