The Dallas Stars have a long history of beating up on the Colorado Avalanche when it matters most, and that’s true whether you’re talking about back-to-back seven-game Western Conference Finals in the Stanley Cup days or as recently as the Edmonton bubble playoffs or even last year’s second round. Not always, but most of the time, Dallas wins.
For Stars’ fans, here’s hoping the club has learned something from that history and can carry it over into the postseason following the worst late-season collapse any good hockey team could ever imagine. Determined to compete for the Presidents Trophy with division rival Winnipeg, the Stars, instead, lost their last seven games (an 0-5-2 record, technically) and lost all sense of rhythm or chemistry they might have built up following the trade deadline moves that got them Mikko Rantanen and Mikael Granlund.
In the process, Jason Robertson left Nashville with a brace on his knee, and, in the silly, secretive world in which the NHL is allowed to exist, he’s likely to be day-to-day with a lower body injury for the foreseeable future.
None of that changes my mind on the fact that I have thought this series is on Jake Oettinger’s shoulders to win, ever since a date with Colorado was confirmed late last week. This is where Dallas is supposed to have the decided advantage on paper against a team like the Avalanche. If you had said in October, the Stars’ first-round goaltending matchup would be Oettinger against Mackenzie Blackwood, you would have asked first how in the world the San Jose Sharks and their average goalie found the playoffs.
But Blackwood found the Avalanche via trade, instead, and has been rock solid since leaving one of the worst teams in the league for one of the best. This alleged advantage Dallas has in net is hard to perceive at the moment. Once again we need the lens of history to help us think in positive terms for the Stars.
Otter could not have been finer when he made his playoff debut at 23 in a seven-game series the Stars lost to Calgary in 2022. It wasn’t on account of the goaltender. He had a 1.82 goals against average and a sparkling .954 save percentage. Only twice in seven games did Oettinger allow Calgary three goals.
The last two postseasons have seen Dallas climb to the Western Conference finals before losing in six games to Vegas and Edmonton. Oettinger had ups and downs both years, but plenty of ups — enough to keep the team tracking towards the Cup before wearing down after six weeks of playoff hockey.
Today we are wondering whether this team has more than a week left in them. Despite a 106-point season — a total the Stars have been sitting on the last four games while losing in regulation to Winnipeg and three teams not playoff-bound — the Stars are literally limping into the post-season. Sure, they have depth at forward to cover for the Robertson injury and it helps that Tyler Seguin had an assist on the Stars’ only goal in his first game Wednesday after missing four months.
But they need to be superior in the crease. They need Oettinger to perform at his best. Lately, we have seen only his worst. He finished the regular season by losing his last four starts against Minnesota, Winnipeg, Detroit and Nashville and surrendering 17 goals in the process — a goals against above 4.50 since he was pulled in the Predators’ game. For the season, his numbers (2.59 goals against, .909 save percentage) are below both his career averages and Blackwood’s numbers this season (2.55, .912). And those are Blackwood’s numbers for both teams. He has been much higher on the goaltending chart during his time in Colorado where he’s 22-12-3 than he was for San Jose.
So that brings us back to history lessons one more time. Two years older, Blackwood has never been tested in an NHL playoff game. For Oettinger, this is his eighth series in four years. That, ordinarily, should be a huge advantage for Dallas, but it only matters if Oettinger can right his own ship and the Stars can defend better than they have and also get back elite defenseman Miro Heiskanen at some point during this series.
Without that spark, without a big early boost from Oettinger, I won’t be surprised if Casey DeSmith gets a start. It only happens if this thing goes off the rails, and that doesn’t have to happen because Dallas still has the front line depth to outscore Colorado even if they have to contend with the speed of Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Maker. It’s still anyone’s series. The Stars’ unexpected slide the last two weeks has merely rendered the home-ice advantage rather pointless. Dallas hasn’t won a home game in two weeks.
That was the last time Oettinger held an opponent below three goals in a game. There’s still a belief he can do that sort of thing again, but beyond the collective effort, he has to step up and prove it against one of the most dangerous teams in the league. The Stars are banking on history, and not recency bias, as being the telling factor in Round One.