Texas Rangers top 30 prospects: No. 23 Southlake’s Paul Bonzagni a potential breakthrough?

SURPRISE, Ariz. — In a recent rundown of talent in major league farm systems, ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel picked a provocative word to describe the Texas Rangers organization: Volatile.

In short, McDaniel said there didn’t seem to be a lot of certainty to the talent, which he ranked 16th among all MLB organizations. There were a lot of potential big hits (Kumar Rocker, Jack Leiter, Sebastian Walcott), but just as many potential misses. In some particular prospect cases, both ends of the spectrum existed.

What’s perhaps more troubling is that among the major outlets that rank organizational talent, ESPN had the Rangers’ system higher than others.

At the end of last season. MLB Pipeline had the Rangers taking a tumble from seventh overall to 26th, part of which was due to the graduations of Wyatt Langford and Evan Carter from prospects to certified major leaguers. But part of it is also the lack of surety.

Baseball America, which also ranks organizational talent, has the Rangers dropping from fourth overall to 19th.

A pair of prodigious tumbles.

Nevertheless, there is talent in the Rangers system and it’s our job to rank the prospects. Here’s our daily prospect tracker as we begin the countdown to No. 1:

No. 23 RHP Paul Bonzagni

Age: 22

Height/weight: 6-2, 200

B-T: R-R

Who he is: A former Southlake Carroll pitcher, Bonzagni began his college career at Weatherford College and then at Southern Illinois, where he was primarily a reliever. The Rangers also saw him in a five-game stint in the Cape Cod League leading up to the 2023 draft. They took him in the 12th round and gave him a $150,000 bonus.

Why he’s here: Looking for a potential breakthrough pitcher? Bonzagni, whom the Rangers moved to starting last year, just might be your guy. He’s got a turbo sinker that can range up to 99 mph and a legitimate slider that made him a ground ball demon. His 55% ground ball rate in 89 innings split between Class A and advanced Class led the Rangers system last year. For the 63 innings he spent at Class A Down East, he ranked 11th among all Class A pitchers in ground ball rate. In his last 12 outings of last year, seven at Class A Down East and five more at Hickory, he posted a 2.95 ERA, struck out 67, walked just 16 and held batters to a .542 OPS. He finished as strong as anyone in the system.

What’s his future: He has started working on a split finger pitch as a changeup, which most likely will be the ultimate determining factor in whether he’s got a future as a starter or if he’s destined to return to bullpen work.

According to Baseball America, which ranks him 27th in the organization, “the [splitter] needs plenty more development. He worked during the team’s fall instructional camp to find a grip that worked best in order to make it a bigger part of his repertoire.”

Where he will start; MLB ETA: Advanced Class A Hub City (Spartanburg, S.C); 2027