CHICAGO — The NBA playoff semifinals are well underway, and while eight teams compete for an opportunity to advance to the conference finals, the rest of the league has gathered in Chicago for the NBA Combine and Draft Lottery.
The week will be full of opportunities for front office executives to evaluate the league’s next batch of young talent. Perhaps most importantly, Monday’s lottery will determine which lucky franchise will walk away with the No. 1 overall pick, and Duke freshman Cooper Flagg, the presumptive top prospect.
The Dallas Mavericks will send Ronaldo Blackman to represent the franchise at this year’s lottery. While it’s probable that Dallas will remain at No. 11 in their draft positioning, there’s a slim chance the Mavericks could be rewarded for their tumultuous season that caused them to miss the playoffs and land a top-four pick.
There are several outcomes that could occur, from Dallas making an improbable jump to No. 1 to an unfortunate slide to No. 14.
Here are five random spins on Tankathon.com to simulate how the Mavericks’ fate in the lottery could play out:
Spin No. 1
10. Houston via Phoenix
11. Portland
12. Dallas (dropped one)
13. Atlanta via Sacramento
14. San Antonio via Atlanta
What this means for the Mavericks: Dallas enters Monday’s lottery with a 13.5% chance of dropping to No. 12, the second-best odds next to their original position of No. 11. This wouldn’t be a dire situation considering the probability and range of players who will likely be among the same group on the team’s draft board. Most NBA teams, as opposed to the NFL, operate on best player available selections rather than drafting based on positional needs.
Jase Richardson, the son of former NBA player Jason Richardson, could be an option for the Mavericks if he’s still available. The Mavericks will have a glaring need at the point guard position because Kyrie Irving’s status is in flux for the start of next season due to his torn ACL.
Richardson could be one of the best players on the board at No. 12. He’s an elite shooter and can finish around the rim, which would complement Dallas’ veteran core.
Spin No. 2
- New Orleans
- Dallas (moved up nine)
- San Antonio via Atlanta
- Philadelphia
- Utah
What this means for the Mavericks: Dallas doesn’t quite capture the Flagg, but they’ll have an opportunity to draft the second-best available prospect, which simultaneously fills a positional need in Rutgers point guard Dylan Harper. Depending on preference, Baylor guard VJ Edgecombe could also be an option at No. 2. Either way, the Mavericks receive the chance to select a quality guard.
What would Dallas look like with Harper or Edgecombe while Kyrie Irving recovers from season-ending surgery on his left ACL? It would be a tall task for a young draftee to lead an offense alongside veterans such as Klay Thomspon, PJ Washington and Anthony Davis. Still, he’d receive an opportunity to receive valuable experience while Irving is sidelined.
Notable: New Orleans lands the first overall pick after starting at its original position at fourth and gets lucky for the first time since the eighth-place Pelicans wound up with the No. 1 pick in 2019 to draft Zion Williamson. Flagg joins the Southwestern Division, meaning he’ll face the Mavericks at least four times per season, and is now part of a Pelicans core that includes Williamson, Dejounte Murray, CJ McCollum and Trey Murphy III. Coach Willie Green could opt to use Flagg as the starting small forward in place of Murphy.
Spin No. 3
10. Houston via Phoenix
11. Portland
12. Dallas
13. Atlanta via Sacramento
14. San Antonio via Atlanta
What this means for the Mavericks: Since the first scenario centered around the Mavericks keeping the 12th pick after dropping, let’s hypothesize what could happen if the franchise wanted to get creative and trade the pick. They could try to trade it to a team looking to move up in the draft in exchange for a veteran guard that would be able to seamlessly fit alongside their starting group of veterans, plus Dereck Lively II.
This route would also require some tinkering around the edges in free agency and the trade market and could be an unpopular move, especially since the Mavericks are limited with their draft assets for the next several years.
Spin No. 4
10. Portland
11. Dallas (original position):
12. Chicago
13. Atlanta via Sacramento
14. San Antonio via Atlanta
What this means for the Mavericks: As expected, there’s no change with the final five positions in the lottery and Dallas secures the No. 11 pick. Again, there’s a handful of players the Mavericks could choose from this position. Collin Murray-Boyles, arguably the best defender in the 2025 draft class, is a good option if Nico Harrison and the rest of the Mavericks brass decide to select the best player available.
That’s if Murray-Boyles is still available. The 6-8 sophomore averaged 16.8 points with 8.3 rebounds last season and could serve as a key rotation player off the bench for the Mavericks.
Spin No. 5
- New Orleans
- Charlotte
- Brooklyn
- Dallas (moved up seven)
- Utah
What this means for the Mavericks: The Mavericks have an 8.5% chance of landing in the top four, and this scenario plunges Dallas into the cream of the crop. Flagg and one of the two aforementioned guards could be off the board, but perhaps Edgecombe won’t be.
The 6-5 freshman who spent one season at Baylor could be perfect for Dallas, who has adopted a defensive-first philosophy since trading Luka Doncic to the Los Angeles Lakers. Edgecombe is one of the best two-way guards in the class, which would be an asset to pair alongside Dallas’ versatile group of frontcourt defenders. He averaged 15 points and 5.6 rebounds in his lone season with the Bears and displayed his athleticism time and time again.
As a shooting guard in college, it’s unclear if he can step into the lead guard role at the next level, but the Mavericks will likely be focused on the best player available in this draft and worry about how the pieces fit later.
Find more Mavericks coverage from The Dallas Morning News here.