Four of Texas’ leading Democrats met last month to sort out which of them is the best choice to run for the Senate seat held by Republican John Cornyn and to potentially develop a slate that would contend for other statewide offices.
There was a major obstacle. They all were steadfastly interested in running for Senate — and nothing else, advisers to three of the potential candidates told The Dallas Morning News this week
The May 31 virtual meeting featured former U.S. Reps. Colin Allred and Beto O’Rourke, along with U.S. Rep. Joaquin Castro and state Rep. James Talarico.
The potential candidates declined to discuss details of their private meeting, even as operatives from the four camps touted their political bona fides to The Dallas Morning News.
With much of the party’s top talent interested in the marquee race, it could be difficult for Democrats to develop a robust slate of candidates, though they are hopeful the situation will work itself out.
Some Democrats hope the four top Democrats would be slotted in campaigns for Senate, governor, lieutenant governor and attorney general.
Democrats are anticipating the 2026 political climate will be unforgiving for Republicans. Historically the party that controls the White House takes losses during midterm elections and Democrats hope voters will sour on President Donald Trump.
There’s also the prospect that Attorney General Ken Paxton, who in 2023 was impeached before being acquitted by the Texas Senate and has a history of legal troubles, will defeat Cornyn for the GOP Senate nomination. Polls show Democrats would fare better against Paxton than Cornyn, a proven general election juggernaut.
“I’m sure everybody wants a path that’s going to get them to a win and lead the Democrats out of the wilderness. That’s what history will remember,” said Brandon Rottinghaus, a University of Houston political scientist. “Assuming Paxton wins, he’s the most vulnerable statewide official and he’s the clear target.”
According to the advisers, Allred, Castro, O’Rourke and Talarico each left the meeting unmoved in their stand that they themselves should be the Senate nominee.
The four intend to meet again this summer.
Voters will get a preview of what such a slate would look like this Friday, when Castro and Talarico join O’Rourke for a town hall gathering in San Antonio. O’Rourke also invited Allred to the event, but he’s currently not scheduled to attend.
Rice political scientist Mark Jones said a statewide slate of the state’s top Democrats — in theory — could lift the party to its first statewide victory since 1994. In any scenario, however, Democrats would be underdogs in statewide races against rival Republicans.
“If you have a good candidate running for attorney general, for instance, that raises the visibility of that race, and that raises Democratic turnout for that candidate,” Jones said. “And so it’s more of a combined effect. In the grand scheme of things, it may not be a dramatic effect, but we’re talking about a race that if you’re going to win as a Democrat, you’re going to win at the margins … having a competitive AG race and other competitive races could be the difference.”
Rottinghaus pointed out that in 2002 Democrats developed what they called a “dream ticket” or “dream team.” It featured former Dallas Mayor Ron Kirk for Senate against Cornyn, Laredo businessman Tony Sanchez for governor against Rick Perry, former Comptroller John Sharp against David Dewhurst for lieutenant governor and former Austin Mayor Kirk Watson against Greg Abbott for attorney general.
Republicans swept those races and took control of the Texas House for the first time since Reconstruction. Since then, Democrats have been unsuccessful in developing political firepower on a statewide level. The lack of competitive high-stakes races have hurt. In 2018 the lightly-funded and not well known Lupe Valdez, the former Dallas County sheriff, ran against Abbott for governor. Since he didn’t perceive her as a serious threat, Abbott was able to help other candidates on the ballot, including Republican Sen. Ted Cruz, who was locked in a tough race against O’Rourke.
It’s still unclear if using all of the party’s best talent in multiple races works.
“All this sounds great on paper, but in practice, most voters aren’t linking all of them together,” Rottinghaus said. “It’s possible that could be something that gets remedied in this modern incarnation of the Dream Team, but it’s still something that requires a lot of the lift.”
And one member of a hyped slate could bring down the others.
“The other thing is that for all the positives of having a unified ticket, there are also negatives, including some of the members are either not well known, or are well known in a way that maybe people don’t like, so the vulnerabilities of one become the problems for all of them,” Rottinghaus said.
Dallas County Democratic Party Chairman Kardal Coleman said a good candidate slate “has to be balanced” and contain “candidates that can appeal to the diverse state,”
“We have to have diversity and diversity in ideals. We’re a big tent party,” Coleman said.
Coleman added that “O’Rourke is center-left,” while Castro or Allred “are a little bit more moderate.” He called Talarico a “TikTok sensation who can reach a number of people online.”
Coleman said other names have emerged as potential statewide candidates, including state Sen. Nathan Johnson, D-Dallas, who is considering running for attorney general.
“We need to make sure we have all of our bases covered and have a strong candidate in every race, not just a crowded field in one,” Coleman said.
Decisions about 2026 are about to be revealed.
Allred, a Dallas Democrat who lost a 2024 Senate challenge to Cruz, said he would announce his decision about running for Cornyn’s seat in early July. Other announcements could follow.
A former three-term congressman, Allred has told The News and KXAS (NBC 5) that he learned from his Senate run against Cruz. His freedom from congressional responsibilities would allow him to “run differently,” Allred said.
A recent Texas Southern University poll showed Allred would do better than O’Rourke against a Republican, but it’s too early to predict the outcome of a primary battle. In the poll, Paxton leads Allred by 2 percentage points, O’Rourke by 3 and Castro by 3. Cornyn led Allred by 4 points, O’Rourke by 6 points and Castro by 7 points.
The poll had Allred with the highest proportion of 2024 voters with a favorable opinion of him at 45%. O’Rourke had the highest proportion of those voters with an unfavorable opinion of him at 49%. His favorability rating was 43%. Castro’s favorability score was 34%, while 27% did not have a favorable opinion of him. These were not solely Democratic primary voters, however.
“In many ways Allred has sort of the right of refusal,” said Jones, co-author of the survey. “If he’s all in, it’s going to be tough for anybody to raise money against him in a primary, as well as to break the narrative that he’s the clear frontrunner.”
O’Rourke has run statewide campaigns in 2018 and 2022 and has deep connections to party activists across the state.
The other members of the quartet appear serious about running for Senate.
Many Democrats have long urged Castro, a former state representative who has served nearly 12 years in Congress, to run for statewide office. Castro has considered running statewide campaigns before, including against Paxton, the attorney general, Abbott and Cruz.
In each instance Castro opted to stay in Congress, where he’s become a prominent Democratic voice.
If Castro, D-San Antonio, runs for Senate, he could unlock a door to voters — including Latinos and younger residents — that Democrats need in order to build a successful coalition.
He has legislative experience in Austin and Washington, having served in the Texas House with Paxton.
O’Rourke is perhaps the best known of the group.
His 2018 campaign against Cruz electrified Texas Democrats, independents and some Republicans. O’Rourke lost to Cruz by 2.6 percentage points. He turned that narrow defeat into an unsuccessful run for president, which some analysts say hurt his efforts to be a winning statewide candidate. In 2022 Abbott beat him for reelection.
O’Rourke has stayed busy, leading the political action committee and grassroots group Powered by People. He’s held numerous rallies across the state to push back against Trump’s policies, including a crowded Sunday event in Fort Worth with Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vermont.
Like Allred, O’Rourke is a proven fundraiser who can match or outraise his rivals. His 2018 campaign was instrumental in helping down-ballot candidates across the state. The party wrestled 12 Texas House seats from Republicans, as well as congressional seats won by Allred and Houston Democrat Lizzie Fletcher.
Talarico, who emerged as a key opposition leader in the Texas House, told The News he’s considering running for Senate as opposed to any other office.
The Austin Democrat is a former school teacher who frequently goes viral on social media. Much of his social media popularity involved his resistance against Abbott’s plan to allow students to use public dollars to attend private schools.
With his social media presence and newness to the statewide political scene, Talarico could appeal to younger voters and new voters. He could also energize a Democratic base frustrated that Democrats don’t provide voters with fresh or unique alternatives. As with most candidates, fundraising and building name recognition in a large state is challenging.
It’s unlikely that all four candidates will stay in the race for what would be a crowded March primary.
Still, it remains a game of political chicken.
“If they can’t get unified in terms of who’s going to run for what, it’s going to be even harder for them to unify around a message that’s going to sell to voters,” Rottinghaus said. “They all want to run for Senate, because that’s one singular race, that’s one person and one candidate message.”